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I've already run through the first round of my one-man mock, which you can check out right here. Now, let's move on to the next few rounds with a look at how early drafts might shake out.
I took roster construction into consideration so that a team didn't select three outfielders in the first three rounds, for example. That's always a consideration on draft day and affects ADP. My top priority, however, was to slot players in where I feel they belong and provide feedback as to the reasoning behind these picks.
This mock draft was conducted as a 12-team league with 5x5 roto scoring format.
The best pitcher on the planet (when healthy) didn't make it into the first round of our mock. Jacob deGrom was insanely good through the first half of the season, posting an MLB-best 30% K-BB%, 1.08 ERA, and 0.55 WHIP. The good news is that his velocity was higher than ever before he landed on the IL. The bad news is that his injuries came to both his elbow and forearm of his pitching arm and was serious enough to keep him on the 60-day IL with no game action since early July. A selection that could make or break leagues this year, deGrom could be the ultimate ace available in round two or a wasted pick if his arm gives out again.
Max Scherzer fits the same mold as deGrom as a veteran pitcher who is still dominant on the mound but comes with a Warning label. Scherzer pitched 179 innings in 2021 and showed his typical dominance, striking out 34% of batters and keeping an ERA under 3.00. The concerns came during the postseason when Scherzer exited after 12 pitches in the NLCS with a groin strain and then later indicated he had a dead arm. Bad timing for the Dodgers and their newly-acquired ace, but it doesn't appear to be anything serious enough to lower his draft stock for next season. Scherzer is now 37 and has over 2,500 Major League innings under his belt, so there's always the chance that he'll go the way of Justin Verlander. If he heads into spring training with a clean bill of health, he should be one of the top pitchers off the board. Now that he has been signed by the Mets, it should provide a beneficial ballpark factor and, supposedly, strong lineup support.
Shane Bieber was a consensus top-10 pick last year after flat-out dominating the shortened 2020 season. Regression did hit early on, as his numbers were closer to his 2019 performance. He was still putting in quality starts on a regular basis until June 13 when he was hit hard by Seattle, giving up 10 hits and five runs. The next day, he would hit the 10-day IL with a right shoulder strain before eventually being transferred to the 60-day IL. Bieber returned for a pair of three-inning appearances at the end of the season and seemed fine. Bieber is just 26 and had no previous injury history, so the lost second half shouldn't factor into his ADP. The one item of concern might be his increasing walk rate, which has climbed from a sterling 4.7% his first two seasons to 8.1% in 2021. The strikeout totals will offset this but his ratios can't be expected to exceed the other pitchers ahead of him in this mock, so a mid-second round pick is about right.
What about Zack Wheeler? He finished second in Cy Young voting and was a breakout performer with a league-leading 247 strikeouts. Perhaps better for fantasy purposes, he also led the NL with 213 1/3 IP. The only real question with Wheeler is whether he can repeat this type of performance. A look at his ratios over the years shows steady improvement, including an xwOBA that has seen a sharp drop since 2017.
Those of us who dropped Wheeler in disgust a few years back when he was wrecking our ratios may need time to wrap our heads around the fact that he's an ace now but this doesn't look to be a one-year wonder.
Marcus Semien is coming off a career year where he hit 45 homers and drove in 102 runs. He was seventh among all players in RazzBall's Player Rater for 2021. That's why he earned a big payout from the Texas Rangers to play second base alongside Corey Seager in the middle of the infield. The move initially seems like a downgrade because he's leaving a Toronto offense that was second in team batting average and first in slugging and wOBA to a Rangers offense that was second-to-last in team average and wOBA and third-lowest in slugging. There's also a downgrade in HR Park Factor, as the new Globe Life ranked 22nd last year.
To count on a repeat by Semien, you'd have to put a lot of faith in former prospects like Nate Lowe, Nick Solak, and Willie Calhoun taking that long-awaited step forward to give anywhere near the same sort of lineup support. Semien's blowup season wasn't a first but the change of venue warrants caution. Drafting him in the top 30 might even be too high, now that I think about it.
Robbie Ray went from complete wild card to Cy Young winner in the matter of one season. The swing-and-miss stuff was always there in spades but his walk rate was intolerable to the point that another bad run in Toronto would have landed him in the bullpen. Instead, he put up the best numbers of his career and solved his issue by posting a 6.7% walk rate. For a full rundown of Ray's season and walk to expect in Seattle, read here.
Trevor Story won't be in Colorado next season but where will he be? He declined the team's qualifying offer, unsurprisingly, but while other top free agents like Seager, Semien, Baez, and others have inked massive deals, we've heard little on the Story front. We'll have to wait a lot longer to find out due to the lockout. Seattle is rumored to be interested but no matter where he winds up, it's a clear disadvantage compared to Coors Field.
Matt Olson could wind up with the Braves, Yankees, Rangers, Dodgers or any number of teams after his huge season with 39 HR, 111 RBI, 101 R, and a .271 average. Few players saw such a dramatic improvement in plate discipline as Olson did, going from a 17.5% K-BB% in 2020 to 3.7% K-BB% in 2021. He'll see upgrades across the board wherever he lands and is at the prime age of 27.
It's a bad investment to draft players coming off career years but what if it's a player who joined the 30-30 club in his first full season as a starter? Or a former top prospect who's only 24 years old and was a finalist for MVP? Or one of the top hitters at his position over the past decade who happened to crank up his power to new heights?
There will undoubtedly be drafters who feel Cedric Mullins, Austin Riley, and Sal Perez are worth taking higher than the fourth round. Mullins was a veritable league winner with his power and speed stats alone, not to mention he batted .291 and crossed the plate 91 times. Some feel that Austin Riley should have gotten more love in the NL MVP voting and that he has surpassed Freddie Freeman as the Braves' best hitter (not this author). Perez was already a favorite for those who like to settle on an offensive-minded catcher early but he blew away expectations by going deep 48 times in his age-31 season when his previous best was 27 HR.
There are justifiable reasons to rank each player higher. For Mullins, it's stolen base scarcity. For Riley, it's his tremendous upside in a potent lineup. For Perez, he's clearly the most valuable player at a position that's hard to fill (and stomach) sometimes. This drafter is a bit leery on the late-age breakout for Mullins so I'm baking in some regression. There are no issues with Riley so long as he maintains his plate discipline.
Perez is a decent bet to see a drop in counting stats, although his 11.7% HR/FB% isn't astronomical and his HR% has steadily increased throughout his career, showing that power surge may be legit. In fact, Statcast has his xHR at 57.3 last year!! Perez shouldn't fall farther than round four but it's also hard to put a batter who gets you no steals and fewer than 100 runs scored much higher than this.
A year ago, Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger were top-15 picks in NFBC drafts and first-rounders in many competitive leagues. Most fantasy managers were willing to overlook a disappointing 2020 from each because, well, it was 2020. We should have heeded the warning signals in this case.
Yelich battled injuries but still got in 475 plate appearances. He was mostly a fixture in the lineup the last two months of the season but wasn't any better, slumping to a .221 average in September. His hard-hit rate and walk rate remained high but nearly every expected statistic was league-average or worse. At age 29 with a bad back, perhaps we've seen him peak already. He's worth a shot as a second outfielder in the first few rounds because of his power/speed combo but I am not willing to get burned again in counting on a bounce back.
Cody Bellinger was horrific, to put it kindly. Ironic how he was given the benefit of the doubt by Dodgers fans ("he'll come around") whereas everyone was calling for Kenley Jansen's head in a year where he finished with the second-most saves in the majors and a 2.22 ERA. But I digress...
Bellinger slashed .165/.240/.302 while posting career-worst strikeout and walk rates for a 14% K-BB%. Injuries played a bigger part in Bellinger's poor output but there's no mistaking that he was flat-out awful whenever he came to bat. He has a couple years over Yelich and plays in a better lineup but the damage he could potentially do again is far worse.
Adalberto Mondesi will be drafted too high yet again in most fantasy leagues. Speed is always enticing and sometimes downright arousing to roto league managers but the steals can only come in if at-bats take place first. Mondesi took just 126 at-bats in 2021, hit .230, walked 4.4% of the time... and still managed to swipe 15 bags. That's not enough to justify a top-50 pick considering his numerous IL stints but since this is the round where the elite players with off years seem to be landing, he's worth a gamble at this point.
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